07 September, 2008

McCain's Bump

This does not look good... .


Elliot said...

I trust FiveThirtyEight on this, and their conclusion was that the evidence points to McCain's national lead coming from improved support in already red states - shoring up the evangelicals in Mississippi, Georgia, etc.

Basically, national polls matter very little, and while statewide polling has tightened up a bit, it hasn't been nearly as drastic. My sense is that McCain's numbers will sink back down (remember how Obama shot up 7 points after his convention speech?) and we will return to an equilibrium of Obama up by 2-3 points.

spencer said...


And inTrade still has Obama at 52.8%. But McCain has come up 5 points in the last week and Obama down 7-8.

So at least the markets are discounting McCain's bump to some extent (they're not putting McCain ahead just because he's ahead in a tracking poll.)