06 February, 2008

Who won Super Tuesday?

After Clinton took California last night, it seemed the major debate on the Democratic side would be between what was more important: winning the most states (as Obama did) or winning the most delegates (as Clinton supposedly would).

But now, as the campaigns and the media are sorting through the actual allotment of delegates (remember that Democratic primaries are proportional, not winner-take-all) it appears that Obama may have actually won the most delegates last night! Clinton is not yet conceding the point by any means. However, if Obama did win more delegates, its hard to see how the Clinton campaign can claim any sort of victory despite crushing him in New York, Massachusetts and California. The Politico has the story.

And on the Republican side, while Huckabee had a good night, it seems that McCain is slowly but surely pulling ahead, now with twice as many delegates as anyone else. Romney badly needed either an exceptionally good showing himself or a poor showing on Huckabee's part -- neither of which happened. Poor Mittens.

3 comments:

spencer said...

The prediction markets certainly thought that Obama won last night. See here:

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

His price (percentage chance of winning) rose from 35 to 50 overnight, while Hillary's fell from 65 to 50.

spencer said...

The one way Clinton can claim victory is that (I think) she won the popular vote. Obama won all six caucus states that have low turnout but in which he had landslide victories because of his superior organization.

Elliot said...

His campaign is claiming they won the popular vote too:

[“Through the first 26 states, we have won more states, won more delegates, won more total votes than Sen. Clinton,” Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said this morning.]

That statement takes into account the pre-Super Tuesday states, but still, the claim is "more people have voted for Obama than for Clinton."

I agree that Obama won -- I was very surprised to hear that he came out ahead in delegates, or at least close. I thought he would be 50-100 behind at least.

From where we stand now, I think Clinton is in big trouble. Obama has as many or more delegates, more states, more momentum, and he raised three times the money that Clinton did in January. He has a slew of favorable states coming up, spaced out at intervals such that he will have time to put that money to use and build up some organization where he currently lacks it.